Macroeconomic impacts

Establishing the direct macroeconomic impacts of the aggregated assessment is the basis for a rough estimate of the impacts of the funding initiative r² on domestic production, gross value added and employment. The focus was on indirect impacts of employment which result from direct and indirect sectoral shifts. Investigating such questions is a traditional application for structurally disaggregated economic models such as the input-output (I/O) analysis.

Here the ISIS-Model (Integrated Sustainability Assessment System), developed by the Fraunhofer ISI, was used. The ISIS-Model consists of an input-output model – based on the latest I/O tables by the Federal Office of Statistics (71 economic sectors). This model divides the German economy into manufacturing and final demand sectors, including export. The delivery of goods and services is shown between the manufacturing sectors (intermediate demand) as well as the supply from those sectors to the final demand sectors. The I/O model simulates the impacts of changes in the final demand on the entire economy. The impact on the value added, imports and the sum total of the output effects are connected to the O/D matrix. Quantitative coefficients of the workplace are calculated by means of coefficients for the workplace in the employment module.

Economic impulses were used as data input which result from the assessment of the direct economic effects when the technologies, developed as part of the funding initiative r², are distributed nation wide. In ISIS the impulses regarding their direct and indirect demand shifts including the direct investment effects and, if necessary, arising compensation effects of cost changes were shown. It was possible to work out the impact on the total employment in Germany and the sectoral needs for adjustment by using this macroeconomic model.

The question of the non-energetic rebound effect was regarded as excursis to the macroeconomic rebound effect. A rebound effect occurs when the saving potentials, particularly for resource efficiency increases, are lower than expected due to a change in behavior in the use and/or demand of efficient products and services. Up to now the rebound effect has been investigated almost exclusively in the field of energy. The Fraunhofer ISI has now presented empirical results on the rebound effect for material consumption. They indicate that the rebound effect for r² is rather small.